In Theory: Can a four teraflop GPU cut it for a next-gen console?

A next generation console with just 4 teraflops of GPU power? Well, that's the rumour. While Microsoft teases and tempts us with the 12TF behemoth that is Xbox Series X, rumours persist that a second box is in development, designed to hit the market at a much lower price-point, undercutting PlayStation 5 while still being able to play each and every next-gen Xbox game. Lockhart is its codename and I find the basic concept behind its creation absolutely fascinating.

While I suspect that there are important nuances in the design that have yet to be revealed, it's safe to assume that the basic premise is based on the theory that graphics are far more scalable than any other component of a particular game with the idea being that Series X targets 4K while Lockhart aims for 1440p instead. This is borne out by the various spec leaks we've seen, which paint a picture of a console that has far more commonalities with Series X than it has differences. Leaks suggest that Lockhart has the same eight-core/16-thread CPU cluster as the Series X (CPU clocks may be very slightly different) while it still uses an NVMe-based solid state storage solution. As it's designed to run at lower native resolutions than Series X, we should also expect a lower provision of GDDR6 memory too: 12GB vs the more capable machine's 16GB seems likely.

However, it's the pared back GPU that presents the biggest marketing challenge for Microsoft. In a world where Xbox One X hit the market with six teraflops back in 2017, how can a 4TF machine possibly cut it for next-gen? I suspect that this all about a combination of AMD's Navi architectural improvements which see a lot more 'performance for your teraflop', likely combined with more modern GPU features that the current console GCN architectures simply don't have. The architectural side of the equation is a matter of record already. Back in October last year, we put together an AMD build with 9.2 teraflops of Navi GPU power and found that we got over 80 per cent more performance from just 53 per cent more compute.

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